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- Doctor Fate
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10 Jun 2011, 11:03 am
danivon wrote:Steve has certainly been paying attention to the right wing media. They've been at Gingrich ever since. I mean, how dare he learn the lessons of the last special election in NY, where the Democrats were able to win partly because seniors (who vote) didn't like the Ryan plan (or the endorsement of it by the Republican) and voted against her.
On the other hand, we could rely on you, who does not know that Gingrich was on MTP BEFORE the special election. Hmm, small timeline problem? Maybe if you read some non-liberal media you'd know better?
If you think Democrats have a winning issue because of a special election, I would remind you of how the same thing happened before the 2010 debacle for the Democrats. Special elections aren't exactly the purest of political indicators.
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- GMTom
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10 Jun 2011, 12:46 pm
I live where that special election took place. Let's not read into things too much. What you do not mention is it was in NEW YORK, where Democrats rule. Yes, it is in a traditionally Republican area but Republicans up here are more RINO's and the media here is uber Democratic. The outgoing person was a Republican being ousted due to a sex scandal, the vote was fairly close with a tea party candidate taking almost 10% of the Republicans votes, the Dems ran almost exclusively on a lie about Republicans wanting to trash medicare and how they are oh-so for it.
None of these will be issues when we have a Presidential election.
Obama may win a second term, but the issues in play will have absolutely nothing to do with this particular election. A far better indicator would be the last elections in November where Republicans made huge gains across the board. How convenient to ignore that?
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- danivon
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10 Jun 2011, 11:41 pm
Steve, the vote was after, but the polling was already pointing to a swing.
Tom, I doubt Gingrich has ignored last November. Should the GOP be complacent enough to rely on that? I bet Obama would love them to
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- Sassenach
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11 Jun 2011, 1:03 am
I freely admit that I don't know what the main issues are likely to be next year, but I suspect there are going to be several factors that could be decisive. Will the economy be on an upswing ? Will the Republicans retain their powerful motivation ? Will voters have been turned off by 2 years of Republican control in Congress ? Will they nominate somebody who's totally unelectable ? Will the Dems do a better job of getting their vote out than they managed last year ? Can the Dems do a better job of sidelining their more unpopular figures (Pelosi et al) during the campaign ?
Ultimately the economy will be the main factor, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suppose that a) Republican momentum from last year will not continue and b) the Dems will get their act together. The Republicans probably won't nominate somebody like Palin who would be poison for moderates, but you can't entirely rule it out either. If they do then it's almost certainly game over.
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11 Jun 2011, 7:37 am
danivon wrote:Steve, the vote was after, but the polling was already pointing to a swing.
Right, but that's not what you said.
And, it ignores two factors: 1) the Democrat who posed as a Tea Party Candidate; and 2) the sheer demagogic campaign the "real" Democrat ran. Scaring old people might work in a limited election, let's see how it plays nationally. My guess: with the money the GOP will have, they will be able to swat down the absolute lies Obama and Co. are peddling.
Tom, I doubt Gingrich has ignored last November. Should the GOP be complacent enough to rely on that? I bet Obama would love them to
Like when he told the Democrats they had nothing to worry about because, unlike previous elections, they had him. Someone was complacent . . .
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11 Jun 2011, 7:47 am
Sassenach wrote:Ultimately the economy will be the main factor, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suppose that a) Republican momentum from last year will not continue and b) the Dems will get their act together.
Let's consider what the Democrats are doing:
Are they passing a budget? No, and haven't in two years. In fact, Obama's budget went down in the Senate, 97-0.
Are they proposing specific spending cuts? No.
Do voters approve of the pure Keynsian economic approach Obama is preaching?
Apparently not:An overwhelming majority of voters -- 89 percent -- think the country has an extremely serious debt problem. Nearly half -- 47 percent -- describe the situation as “a crisis,” and another 42 percent describe it as “a major problem.”
Tea Partiers (67 percent) are almost twice as likely as Democrats (35 percent) to call it a crisis. Majorities of Republicans (58 percent) and independents (54 percent) say “crisis” is the best way to describe the debt situation. By a 14 percentage-point margin, voters ages 55 and over (53 percent) are more likely than those ages 35 and younger (39 percent) to call it a crisis.
When voters are asked how Republicans in Congress should proceed on the debt issue, over half (55 percent) say Republicans should only agree to raise the limit after the president and Democrats agree to major spending cuts. Not only do most Republican voters (66 percent) hold this view, but also more Democrats than not (48-41 percent) concur -- their party should agree to cut spending before Congressional Republicans allow the debt limit to be raised.
Even Democrats understand cuts must happen. Is the President leading on this?
Are there signs that point to a genuine recovery--one that the electorate can sense (as in "feel in their wallets")? No. Hiring has flatlined. Housing market is still down. Six weeks of down stock prices (longest such streak in 9 years). Costs are up; salaries are stagnate.
Could things change? Sure.
However, when you are borrowing 40% of the budget and people are getting antsy about loaning you more, you've got a real problem. Obama has presented no solution to that issue--other than a vague speech which left all the details to be filled in.
89% consider the debt as a major problem or a crisis. The President is not addressing it.
That's not really a strong platform, is it?
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12 Jun 2011, 7:24 am
Doctor Fate wrote:And, it ignores two factors: 1) the Democrat who posed as a Tea Party Candidate; and 2) the sheer demagogic campaign the "real" Democrat ran. Scaring old people might work in a limited election, let's see how it plays nationally. My guess: with the money the GOP will have, they will be able to swat down the absolute lies Obama and Co. are peddling.
On the first, perhaps, but it looks like that TP guy was squeezed out. On the second, it remains to be seen. I heard that Obama has a bit of a warchest for next year.
Like when he told the Democrats they had nothing to worry about because, unlike previous elections, they had him. Someone was complacent . . .
If that's what he said, then sure. You think that because someone else (your little obsession, no less), was complacent that your 'side' are immune? Are you incapable of discussing political matters without making it about how Obama's baaad, mmmkay?
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- rickyp
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12 Jun 2011, 10:37 am
So Steve, I'm going to assume that since you are quoting the Fox news Poll that you put credence in its results.
The poll seems to indicate that the ordinary publis are deeply concerned about the debt problem ...but it also seems to indicate that they are really concerned about which leaders understand their concerns best. And although Obama doesn't seem to connect with a majority the Tea Party and the Republicans in congress seem particualrly disconnected. How does that mean anything positive about their electoral chances?
Do you think Barack Obama is in touch with how Americans feel about the national debt and government spending, or is he out of touch on this issue?
In touch 47%
Out of touch 49%
(Don’t know) 4%.
Do you think Tea Party leaders in Washington are in touch with how Americans feel about the national debt and government spending, or are they out of touch on this issue?
In touch 33%
Out of touch 54%
Don’t know) 13%.
Do you think Republican leaders in Washington are in touch with how Americans feel about the national debt and government spending, or are they out of touch on this issue?
In touch 35%
Out of touch 59%
(Don’t know 6%
)
Seems to me that you've just indicated that the right has a bigger credibility problem on this issue than Obama. Well done/.
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12 Jun 2011, 12:25 pm
Ricky, you do realise that you are citing the wrong part of the poll? The one that doesn't conform to Steve's ideology.
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12 Jun 2011, 2:13 pm
danivon wrote:Doctor Fate wrote:And, it ignores two factors: 1) the Democrat who posed as a Tea Party Candidate; and 2) the sheer demagogic campaign the "real" Democrat ran. Scaring old people might work in a limited election, let's see how it plays nationally. My guess: with the money the GOP will have, they will be able to swat down the absolute lies Obama and Co. are peddling.
On the first, perhaps, but it looks like that TP guy was squeezed out.
The guy ran under the "Tea Party" banner, and drew, what, like 8 or 9%? He is a lifelong Democrat, but fooled enough people to cost the Republican.
On the second, it remains to be seen. I heard that Obama has a bit of a warchest for next year.
Yes, just as he did last time. He'll also have a record--and he'll need 10X the planned $1B to convince Americans he's done a good job.
If that's what he said, then sure.
Oh yes, Mr. Full-of-Himself said it.
Are you incapable of discussing political matters without making it about how Obama's baaad, mmmkay?
Not at all. He got UBL. Nice work.
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12 Jun 2011, 2:15 pm
rickyp wrote:So Steve, I'm going to assume that since you are quoting the Fox news Poll that you put credence in its results.
The poll seems to indicate that the ordinary publis are deeply concerned about the debt problem ...but it also seems to indicate that they are really concerned about which leaders understand their concerns best. And although Obama doesn't seem to connect with a majority the Tea Party and the Republicans in congress seem particualrly disconnected. How does that mean anything positive about their electoral chances?
Do you think Barack Obama is in touch with how Americans feel about the national debt and government spending, or is he out of touch on this issue?
In touch 47%
Out of touch 49%
(Don’t know) 4%.
Do you think Tea Party leaders in Washington are in touch with how Americans feel about the national debt and government spending, or are they out of touch on this issue?
In touch 33%
Out of touch 54%
Don’t know) 13%.
Do you think Republican leaders in Washington are in touch with how Americans feel about the national debt and government spending, or are they out of touch on this issue?
In touch 35%
Out of touch 59%
(Don’t know 6%
)
Seems to me that you've just indicated that the right has a bigger credibility problem on this issue than Obama. Well done/.
I've no problem with any of the numbers you've cited. I think they're great.
Why?
Because if the Fox numbers are remotely in the ball park, Obama's done. His "plan" to reduce the deficit?
Spend more!
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- GMTom
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12 Jun 2011, 8:08 pm
One thing I found amusing from Ricky's "conclusion" based on this poll,
We see people think Republicans and Tea Partiers are out of touch. He uses this as proof Obama is unbeatable but does the poll tell us what Americans think of Democrats? Are they in touch? Are they the same as Republicans? Are they worse than Republicans? We have no idea now do we? Without that, you simply can't draw any conclusion (well Ricky can as we see, but how knowledgeable is that conclusion?)
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- geojanes
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12 Jun 2011, 8:23 pm
Perfect summary of my thinking right now:
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- rickyp
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13 Jun 2011, 6:30 am
tom
One thing I found amusing from Ricky's "conclusion" based on this poll,
We see people think Republicans and Tea Partiers are out of touch. He uses this as proof Obama is unbeatable but does the poll tell us what Americans think of Democrats? Are they in touch? Are they the same as Republicans? Are they worse than Republicans? We have no idea now do we? Without that, you simply can't draw any conclusion (well Ricky can as we see, but how knowledgeable is that conclusion?)
You have real problems with reading comprehension don't you? The conclusion I drew was
Seems to me that you've just indicated that the right has a bigger credibility problem on this issue than Obama.
I didn't conclude that Obama was unbeatable.
Moreover, in a Presidential election year, its generally the positions of the two contenders for the top post who control the debate. The only reason its important to understand that republicans and Tea Partiers are more disconnected than Obama is that the eventual nominee will have come out of the primaries as a reflection of the Tea Party and/or core republican voter... And if they carry the baggage of policies that the majority of Americans say is "out of touch"... it will be a huge handicap.
Now, if you are a true believer like Steve, you'll just insist that eventually the majority of Americans will come around to our point of view if we just stay pure and talk even louder....But i don't think that usually works.
None of this shows that I concluded that Obama is unbeatable...just that a complete appraisal of Steve's evidence contradicted his original use of the data.
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13 Jun 2011, 9:05 am
Geo, thanks for showing us how "swing voters" view things. I guess without Nader running, your vote is a bit less, ah, "swing?"
