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- rickyp
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06 Jun 2015, 10:46 am
fate
I don't think this is accurate. It stretches over 20 years
The source is the FBI. They should know whats on their database.
you have a better source?
Over the past 20 years, authorities have made more than a quarter of a billion arrests, the Federal Bureau of Investigation estimates. As a result, the FBI currently has 77.7 million individuals on file in its master criminal database—or nearly one out of every three American adults.
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- freeman3
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06 Jun 2015, 11:04 am
It's a legitimate question as to whether the FBI keeps accurate ,updated records. But 250 million arrests in 20 years is going to put a lot of people on the list. Takes DUIs for example. There are about 1.5 million arrests per year, 1/3 for repeat offenders. So that's a million people a year. In 20 years that's 20 million people (of course we don't know what percentage already had an arrest for something else but non-criminals get DUIs). The war on drugs has certainly put a lot of people on the list. Also, the "broken windows" theory of policing has resulted in many arrests for minor crimes.
https://www.ag.ny.gov/pdfs/OAG_REPORT_O ... V_2013.pdfHad a client come in the other day whose application for a contractor's license got denied because he got a misdemeanor FTA in a case where he paid the bail on a ticket and mistakenly thought the ticket had been taken care of. Ordinarily, a single FTA would be reduced to an infraction but he got the wrong judge and wrong PD. Anyway, I'm sure there are a lot of arrests on traffic warrants. Thrre are a lot of misdemeanor arrests for traffic violations, generally.There are a lot of arrests for disorderly conduct and domestic violence incidents.
We're getting to be a pretty heavily policed society.
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- Doctor Fate
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06 Jun 2015, 11:13 am
freeman3 wrote:It's a legitimate question as to whether the FBI keeps accurate ,updated records. But 250 million arrests in 20 years is going to put a lot of people in the list. Takes DUIs for example. There are about 1.5 million arrests per year, 1/3 for repeat offenders. So that's a million people a year. In 20 years that's 20 million people (of course we don't know what percentage already had an arrest for something else but non-criminals get DUIs). The war on drugs has certainly put a lot of people in the list. Also, the "broken windows" theory of policing has resulted in many arrests for minor crimes.
https://www.ag.ny.gov/pdfs/OAG_REPORT_O ... V_2013.pdf
DUI's are not a minor crime. It's an assault with a deadly weapon just waiting for a victim.
Had a client come in the other day whose application for a contractor's license got denied because he got a misdemeanor FTA in a case where he paid the bail on a ticket and mistakenly thought the ticket had been taken care of. Ordinarily, a single FTA would be reduced to an infraction but he got the wrong judge and wrong PD. Anyway, I'm sure there are a lot of arrests on traffic warrants. Thrre are a lot of misdemeanor arrests for traffic violations, generally.There are a lot of arrests for disorderly conduct and domestic violence incident incidents.
Agreed.
The only people in my extended family who have been arrested are drug addicts. That's it. I just find the 1/3 stat dubious.
I know many of those 250 million arrests are repeat offenders. I'd also wonder whether the "arrests" are not all discrete. In other words, if a guy gets arrested for 20 counts of burglary, is that one arrest or twenty (in terms of these statistics)?
We may be "heavily policed," but there are a lot of serious criminals on the loose. Your governor kicked a lot of them free a couple of years ago. Ask any cop what they think of that one--gang members, drug dealers, etc. released. It's done nothing but send crime through the roof in some areas.
Last edited by
Doctor Fate on 06 Jun 2015, 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- freeman3
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06 Jun 2015, 11:48 am
It appears that the UCR program uses a hierarchy rule to count the most serious offense in multiple offense arrests if the crimes were committed at the same time and place. So if an agency arrested a guy for committing a bunch of crimes during one robbery then they would count only the most serious crime. If an arrest was made for several different robberies, then that (apparently) would count as several different arrests. So the 250 million number is inflated in the sense that it does not mean 250 million separate arrests. I think.
http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/faqs.htm
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- Doctor Fate
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06 Jun 2015, 11:56 am
freeman3 wrote:It appears that the UCR program uses a hierarchy rule to count the most serious offense in multiple offense arrests if the crimes were committed at the same time and place. So if an agency arrested a guy for committing a bunch of crimes during one robbery then they would count only the most serious crime. If an arrest was made for several different robberies, then that (apparently) would count as several different arrests. So the 250 million number is inflated in the sense that it does not mean 250 million separate arrests. I think.
http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/faqs.htm
I think that's right.
I do agree there may be too many people arrested, but there are not too many violent people being arrested. They all deserve it.
I think something needs to be done re drug laws. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I cannot support legalization. Why? Because there are new (and improved) drugs on the market all the time that are simply too dangerous to legalize. Furthermore, legalization implies (to the young and to the simple-minded) they are not dangerous. I don't know what the answer is, but legalization is simultaneously lazy and dangerous.
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- freeman3
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06 Jun 2015, 12:41 pm
While the libertarian in me says why should the government dictate what I put in my body, the justification for government regulation is the link between drug/alcohol use and crime. A couple of old studies.
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/DRRC.PDFhttps://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/jr000250d.pdfMarijuana may be ok (though users are fooling themselves if they think that it won't affect their brain negatively if used for a long period of time). And alcohol use is probably under-regulated.
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- Doctor Fate
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06 Jun 2015, 12:55 pm
freeman3 wrote:While the libertarian in me says why should the government dictate what I put in my body, the justification for government regulation is the link between drug/alcohol use and crime. A couple of old studies.
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/DRRC.PDFhttps://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/jr000250d.pdfMarijuana may be ok (though users are fooling themselves if they think that it won't affect their brain negatively if used for a long period of time). And alcohol use is probably under-regulated.
We concur.