Owen, I concede your point.

Ricky, but even in Japan smoking decreased life expectancy as compared to non-smokers. So the fact that Cuba would have a life expectancy exceeding the US and have higher smoker rates, well, let's just say that is surprising. Japan, while it may have high smoking rates, also has better diet, good health care, wealthy standard of living, etc. that lead to a higher life expectancy in spite of higher smoking rates. For Cuba to have such a high life expectancy in spite of high smoking rates means it would have to have countervailing indicators similar to Japan. Anyway, if the stats are accurate it does not matter what the likelihood is...And as Owen says, we're not going to agree on that (at least I am not going to agree without a much more intensive assessment of Cuba's health care system and sophisticated mathematical analysis of their health care stats)

freeman3

For Cuba to have such a high life expectancy in spite of high smoking rates means it would have to have countervailing indicators similar to Japan

There are a number. Low obesity rates, More activity (walking etc) than many western nations, little income disparity (everyone except a handful are in similar economic condition), no miserable winters and early preventative actions through the medical system.

freeman3

.And as Owen says, we're not going to agree on that (at least I am not going to agree without a much more intensive assessment of Cuba's health care system and sophisticated mathematical analysis of their health care stats

)

I think it would be really useful. Although I'll note that the leading experts in the world aren't as notably suspicious as you The investigation of different systems with different results is always going to inform about both systems.

Its off track a little but I heard an author on Maher the other night mention an astonishing fact. Epidemiologists in the US can predict with great accuracy a particular week in the life of a person when an American will most likely have an operation. The week before they die.
In the US there are all kinds of motivations to attempt surgery on an old person, even as their life winds down. Profit being one ... In a place like Cuba with so few resources, this probably doesn't happen.
But in the end the lack of resources can result in less pain and discomfort for the dying and certainly less cost, for their estate and for the system ... result in a more humane approach. Admittedly by default.

Anyway, I'm sure the Obama care death panels will fix that.

hacker

Ricky, you have used anecdotal information yourself: your explanation of how great the Cuban medical response was to your diving team's accident or whatever. That was an anecdote meant to "prove" it, wasn't it?

Quite the opposite... Please try and read better.. What I said:

My personal experience is limited to having a Cuban doctor visit a member of my diving group at our hotel on isle of Pines when she became ill. So I wouldn't depend on it.
I rely on all kinds of different evidence. Including for instance
The International Journal of Epidemiology

...

Via the expedience of Google, Medicins Sans Frontiers (aka Doctors without Borders) on Cuba:

http://www.msf.org/article/cuba-msf-clo ... ons-island

All I can find otherwise is reference to Cuba sending doctors to other places to help out, such as for the recent Ebola epidemic. Which says little about how things are in Cuba itself.

From 2000, explaining why they closed their missions there.

Human Rights watch summary for 2014 (does not mention general health issues, only that for prisoners):

http://www.hrw.org/world-report/2014/co ... pters/cuba

Amnesty International doesn't have a Country Report since 2012, just small articles, but here's the latest - again very light on health.

http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/cuba/report-2012
http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/cuba

freeman3 wrote:Owen, I concede your point.

Ricky, but even in Japan smoking decreased life expectancy as compared to non-smokers. So the fact that Cuba would have a life expectancy exceeding the US and have higher smoker rates, well, let's just say that is surprising. Japan, while it may have high smoking rates, also has better diet, good health care, wealthy standard of living, etc. that lead to a higher life expectancy in spite of higher smoking rates. For Cuba to have such a high life expectancy in spite of high smoking rates means it would have to have countervailing indicators similar to Japan. Anyway, if the stats are accurate it does not matter what the likelihood is...And as Owen says, we're not going to agree on that (at least I am not going to agree without a much more intensive assessment of Cuba's health care system and sophisticated mathematical analysis of their health care stats)

I expect that the Cuban diet is healthier than the US diet. It is less meaty, and less stodgy. The staple carbs come from rice, which is better than potato or refined wheat. Also, it tends to be served with beans as Moros y Christianos, and is of course not deep-fried. As sugar is grown for export, not domestic consumption, the diet is less sweet.

Obesity is a major factor in life expectancy, as it leads to issues of heart disease and cancer.

Just as in the UK, the rationing of WWII and just after had great health benefits, despite being unpopular, restrictions on Cuban diet are also likely to mean less of the unhealthy stuff like trans-fats and high fructose corn syrup.

Japan, despite being much richer, has a much more disciplined approach to healthy eating (and they favour fish rather than meat, which makes a big difference).