Iraq Breakup Made Easier by Turkey’s Détente With Kurds

http://time.com/2898883/iraq-turkey-kurd-isis/

things change.

rickyp wrote:Iraq Breakup Made Easier by Turkey’s Détente With Kurds

http://time.com/2898883/iraq-turkey-kurd-isis/

things change.

And they can change back. Turkey does not want to encourage it's own Kurds to greater autonomy.

freeman3 wrote: Trying to cater to ethnic group rights does not create stable societies. The Middle East is not unstable because of what Western Countries have done , it is unstable because the level of economic development is not sufficient to support democracies. So, you have a choice between repressive autocracies or democracies where there is a lack of legitimacy because anyone not part of the majority religion or ethnic group sees the government as not being legitimate. Economic development that creates a middle-class eventually forces the ruling elites to give up some of their political power; it also tends to make people see themselves as being individuals first rather than being defined by their religion or ethnic group. This atomization of the people allows the government to represent everyone, as the government is not seen favoring a particular religious or ethnic group, so the government is seen as being legitimate. Without that legitimacy, you need an autocrat who controls the military and that keep ethnic and religious fractures in line. ...
The West deserves its share of blame for colonialism and for intervening in the Middle East for its own benefit, but the underlying political problems in the Middle East cannot be blamed on France, Great Britain, and the US indefinitely.

Is it all false borders, different ethnic groups and uneven development, or is there something about Arab culture that drives this mess?

ray

Is it all false borders, different ethnic groups and uneven development, or is there something about Arab culture that drives this mess?

Its usually bad government.period. And usually that bad govenrment exists because it is making laws and running the country to the benefit of a small elite or a foreign power. Even when the "foreign power " is somewhat benign.
i.e. For all the good that England brought to india when it colonized, the indians still remember that wealth fowed out of India to England.
The establishment of most successful democracies ocurred over a large period of time, where liberties grew to a wider and wider section of society. Enfranchisement (the vote) of wider sections of society meant that governments had to be responsive to larger sections of society....
As long as despots and totalitarian regimes are supported that maintain tight control on their power in order to maintain an extractive relationship with the economy .... democracy stops.
Now, institutions that protect property, and protect the rights of a small elite grow and help the circle of libery grow. The US didn't form as a democracy that respected all men equally after all.
Nations like Iran were well on their way to moving to a healthy democracy when the Shah was installed by the CIA..... so I don't know what tha says about Arab culture. (I know they aren't Arabs).
And it may be true that the tribal nature of the Arab culture hobbles it. But what is the tribal culture other than a way for the elites of the tribe to control their tribe?
And it is certainly true that rather than help install modern institutions of governance, the West was quite happy to let the elites continue their rule as long as it benefitted them.

Well, maybe here's a start--more women going to university.http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/01/world/mea ... education/
But illiteracy rates surely contribute towards making democracy difficult.
http://www.unesco.org/education/uie/pdf/country/

I have had a hard time finding percentages of college graduates in the Middle East. Here is an article indicating that there has been a substantial increase in higher education recently in the Middle East.http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publicati ... /MEB36.pdf

I think if there is one single factor that promotes democracy it's having high levels of college graduates (but contra perhaps education without jobs is not enough) Problems in the Middle East include the fact that (1) wealth based on one commodity (oil) controlled by a few does not create the kind of economic development that creates a middle-class demanding political power, (2) illiteracy, (3) exclusion of women from the economy, (4) lack of separation between religion and the state.

Did anyone notice that the Russians are now involved in helping the Iraqis? Iran, Russia and the USA all helping the Iraqis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/world/middleeast/iraq.html

Clearly, Iraq is doomed.

geo

Iran, Russia and the USA all helping the Iraqis.

They are helping the Shia in the region.
The Sunnis in the region are being helped by Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and etc.
The Kurds seem to be getting help from the US and Turkey.
Picking sides in a religions war.
And the Israelis President has raised the issue of Israel cooperating with moderate Arab states and the Palestinians agains ISIS.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 26,00.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/2 ... 40587.html

This is not so much a political or state war. Its the age old conflict between two Muslim groups that couldn't agree on how to organize their religion. When the US supplanted a decades old secular Sunni government in Iraq and handed the keys to a Shia government that then systematically shut out the Sunni minority ... they resisted the change. Only large bribes from the US brought about the short term cooperation of the Sunni against extremists. (The Surge or Sunni awakening)
As soon as the US left, the old religious war begins again. I don't know that there's a military solution or political solution that can be imposed. But as long as the energy portfolio of the modern world contains such a large share to oil, the outside world will have to find a way to contribute to creating some kind of stability. Considering the cluster******* that is being revealed .... there is no short term resolution.