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Post 28 Mar 2014, 6:33 am

There are reports of a buildup of Russian troops on its Ukraine border. If they do go in, what should the west do? I can see sanctions and expelling them from the G-8. Should we do anything else? What else can we do?
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Post 28 Mar 2014, 10:47 am

Ray Jay wrote:There are reports of a buildup of Russian troops on its Ukraine border. If they do go in, what should the west do? I can see sanctions and expelling them from the G-8. Should we do anything else? What else can we do?


I think we should be supplying the Ukrainians with weapons. I think we should be making a number of other "anti-reset" moves. For example, putting the missile defense shield back in Poland and the Czech Republic, holding an emergency NATO meeting, and taking other measures to let Putin know there may be military/geopolitical consequences to an invasion.

I can tell you this: calling for Putin to obey international law and telling him he's on "the wrong side of history" will have zero effect on his behavior.
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Post 28 Mar 2014, 11:43 am

Ray Jay wrote:There are reports of a buildup of Russian troops on its Ukraine border. If they do go in, what should the west do? I can see sanctions and expelling them from the G-8. Should we do anything else? What else can we do?


Give 100,000 anti-tank shoulder-fired rockets. Load the country up with a lot of anti-air defenses. Get the g-7 to commit to complete non-trade with Russia or anyone who trades with Russia.

That would get some attention.
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Post 28 Mar 2014, 11:45 am

fate
I can tell you this: calling for Putin to obey international law and telling him he's on "the wrong side of history" will have zero effect on his behavior
.

What material effect will supplying weapons if any kind to Ukraine?
It took Russia 26 hours to end the Georgian attack on South Ossetia and force a cease fire and resolution..
Meanwhile the West continues to sell weapons to Russia. France is selling warships to Russia...


http://www.france24.com/en/20140306-fre ... -test-run/

.The current defense force in the Ukraine is not a cohesive unit, in the same way the country is not... Most likely if Russia does decide to annex Eastern Ukraine, they will repeat the successful ploy (from the Crimea) of "self defense forces" of ethnic Russian Ukrainians moving on important sites. The Russian ethnic members of the Ukraine defense forces could not be trusted to be loyal to the Ukraine, and many commanders of the defense forces have strong loyalty to the Russian military from the Soviet era...
If Putin thinks that the annexation of East Ukraine would be locally popular, and the rest of the world sufficiently wary of engaging Russia militarily he might go....
In short, sending a few small arms to Ukraine at this point would be a futile gesture.
I don't think anyone is actually contemplating a war over this, with the possible exception of Senator "Old Man Who Shakes His Fist at Clouds".
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Post 28 Mar 2014, 11:46 am

.
Last edited by rickyp on 28 Mar 2014, 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post 28 Mar 2014, 12:17 pm

rickyp wrote:fate
I can tell you this: calling for Putin to obey international law and telling him he's on "the wrong side of history" will have zero effect on his behavior
.

What material effect will supplying weapons if any kind to Ukraine?


What material element of my quote are you responding to?

None, just pure buffoonery on your part.

It took Russia 26 hours to end the Georgian attack on South Ossetia and force a cease fire and resolution..
Meanwhile the West continues to sell weapons to Russia. France is selling warships to Russia...


Because France has a long history of not being concerned until enemy tanks are rolling through Paris. At that point, they shrug, move the government and collaborate with the invaders.

What's that got to do with American responses now?

Most likely if Russia does decide to annex Eastern Ukraine, they will repeat the successful ploy (from the Crimea) of "self defense forces" of ethnic Russian Ukrainians moving on important sites.


True, as I already alluded to--this is a repeat of the German pre-WW2 strategy. What you fail to mention is there are ethnic Russians in many other areas. So, if it works in Ukraine, why not in other locales?

In short, sending a few small arms to Ukraine at this point would be a futile gesture.
I don't think anyone is actually contemplating a war over this, with the possible exception of Senator "Old Man Who Shakes His Fist at Clouds".


Thank you for a memorable post. It didn't advance the ball, argue for a position, or provide anything to think about, but you did meet your own standard.
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Post 28 Mar 2014, 12:35 pm

Ray Jay wrote:There are reports of a buildup of Russian troops on its Ukraine border. If they do go in, what should the west do? I can see sanctions and expelling them from the G-8. Should we do anything else? What else can we do?
Don't know. I do know that Ukraine has been building troops up on it's border for a couple of weeks already.
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Post 30 Mar 2014, 11:17 am

Ray Jay wrote:There are reports of a buildup of Russian troops on its Ukraine border. If they do go in, what should the west do? I can see sanctions and expelling them from the G-8. Should we do anything else? What else can we do?


I've been thinking more about the appropriate Western response. It seems to me that this is a long game and we should respond economically to hurt Russia's long term interests. I bet that fracking will become more popular in Europe. The U.S. should approve Keystone, approve the export of LNG, and it should reduce the strategic petroleum reserve, because with Keystone it will be less necessary.

Articles in the financial press are suggesting that oil will drop to less than $75 per barrel in the near future. Much of Russian oil comes from Siberia and is relatively expensive to extract. This will cause a tremendous amount of paid to their economy.
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Post 30 Mar 2014, 12:34 pm

Ray Jay wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:There are reports of a buildup of Russian troops on its Ukraine border. If they do go in, what should the west do? I can see sanctions and expelling them from the G-8. Should we do anything else? What else can we do?


I've been thinking more about the appropriate Western response. It seems to me that this is a long game and we should respond economically to hurt Russia's long term interests. I bet that fracking will become more popular in Europe. The U.S. should approve Keystone, approve the export of LNG, and it should reduce the strategic petroleum reserve, because with Keystone it will be less necessary.

Articles in the financial press are suggesting that oil will drop to less than $75 per barrel in the near future. Much of Russian oil comes from Siberia and is relatively expensive to extract. This will cause a tremendous amount of paid to their economy.


Yes, and we could do more to "flood" the market. If we really had a "all of the above" policy, we would cause Russia some pain. There are other measures that should be taken, I'm sure, but Russia would be a fiscal basket-case if their energy markets were lost/diminished.
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Post 04 Apr 2014, 3:13 pm

I've never read a piece that so aptly describes our current foreign policy, Obama’s Fantasy-Based Foreign Policy:


On February 23, five days before Russia invaded Ukraine, National Security Adviser Susan Rice appeared on Meet the Press and shrugged off suggestions that Russia was preparing any kind of military intervention: “It’s in nobody’s interest to see violence returned and the situation escalate.” A return to a “Cold War construct” isn’t necessary, Rice insisted, because such thinking “is long out of date” and “doesn’t reflect the realities of the 21st century.” Even if Vladimir Putin sees the world this way, Rice argued, it is “not in the United States’ interests” to do so.

It was a remarkably transparent case of pretending the world is what we wish it to be, rather than seeing it as it is.

On February 28, Russian troops poured into Ukraine. As they did, Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his Russian counterpart. Kerry briefed reporters after their talk, plainly unaware of the developments on the ground. Kerry said that Russia wants to help Ukraine with its economic problems. Lavrov had told him “that they are prepared to be engaged and be involved in helping to deal with the economic transition that needs to take place at this point.”

Hours later, television screens across the world displayed images of Russian soldiers infiltrating Crimea and Russian artillery rolling through Sevastopol. Obama administration officials told CNN’s Barbara Starr that the incursion was not “an invasion” but an “uncontested arrival” and that this distinction was “key” to understanding the new developments.

But euphemism can’t alter reality. So, President Obama delivered a statement: “The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine.” The White House wasn’t quite ready to lead the international community in a response to an intervention that was underway, but with the snarl of a puppy, the president announced we would “stand with” others if the uncontested arrival somehow turned into real military intervention. (Thirty minutes after his warning, no doubt meant to convey toughness and resolve, Obama appeared at a Democratic National Committee pep rally and declared the opening of “happy hour.”)

Four days later, with Russia in effective control of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, Vladimir Putin held a press conference—a rambling series of claims and statements that sometimes contradicted each other and often contradicted reality. Putin maintained, for instance, that there were no Russian troops on the ground in Ukraine, and that the Russian-speaking soldiers who often identified themselves as Russian soldiers were probably local defense groups who may well have bought their uniforms from military surplus stores.

Where others saw the agitprop of an emboldened authoritarian, the White House chose to see hope. Administration officials seized on one sentence of his blather and expressed optimism. “Regarding the deployment of troops, the use of armed forces so far, there is no need for it.  .  .  . Such a measure would certainly be the very last resort,” Putin said. Obama national security officials saw this claim—which came days after Russian troops had been deployed—as evidence that Putin was looking for an “off-ramp.” And soon we had a name for this new Obama approach to the crisis: “de-escalation.”

It’s not de-escalation, it’s delusion. And it’s dangerous. The public seems to understand this. In a Fox News poll released March 6, Obama’s foreign policy approval rating fell to a new low—at just 33 percent (56 percent disapprove).

For five years, the Obama administration has chosen to see the world as they wish it to be, not as it is. In this fantasy world, the attack in Fort Hood is “workplace violence.” The Christmas Day bomber is an “isolated extremist.” The attempted bombing in Times Square is a “one-off” attack. The attacks in Benghazi are a “spontaneous” reaction to a YouTube video. Al Qaeda is on the run. Bashar al-Assad is a “reformer.” The Iranian regime can be sweet-talked out of its nuclear weapons program. And Vladimir Putin is a new, post-Cold War Russian leader.

In the real world, it was a pen pal of the late jihadist Anwar al-Awlaki who opened fire on soldiers at Fort Hood. The Christmas bomber was dispatched from Yemen, where he was instructed by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The Times Square bomber was trained and financed by the Pakistani Taliban. Benghazi was a deliberate attack launched by well-known terrorist groups. Al Qaeda is amassing territory and increasing its profile. Assad is a brutal dictator, responsible for the deaths of more than 100,000 Syrians. The Iranian regime is firmly entrenched as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror and remains determined to lead a nuclear state. And in Russia we face a Cold War throwback willing to use force to expand Russian influence.

And Vladimir Putin, it turns out, is who we thought he was. Unfortunately, so is Barack Obama.
Last edited by Doctor Fate on 24 Apr 2014, 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post 23 Apr 2014, 1:13 pm

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Post 23 Apr 2014, 2:04 pm

Its kind of funny that you quote an opinion piece by Stephen Hayes, that derides the foreign policy of the current US administration.
Then you post your comic which is a reference towards the US invasion of Iraq on trumped up pre-text.
Stephen Hayes was a huge proponent and cheerleader for the War on Iraq. Do you suppose his opinion piece is proposing that the US become militarily involved in Ukraine? Its hard to tell what he's proposing as an alternative to the current policies around Ukraine and Crimea ....
Its seems to be nothing more than a fantasy that if we just talked tougher to Putin things would turn out differently .... The same kind of fantasy that suggested that the Iraqis would welcome an invasion and occupation of their country and eventually turn into great allies and friends...
Stephen Hayes has no credibility, and your comic explains why.
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Post 23 Apr 2014, 2:53 pm

What was the word that Danivon used?

Wasn't it "whataboutery"?

What is your comment on the current situation w/o bringing up Bush?
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Post 23 Apr 2014, 3:02 pm

rickyp wrote:Its kind of funny that you quote an opinion piece by Stephen Hayes, that derides the foreign policy of the current US administration.
Then you post your comic which is a reference towards the US invasion of Iraq on trumped up pre-text.


Um, as should be obvious, you are wrong. Then again, you knew that when you engaged in your attempt (?) at humor.

Secretary of State John Kerry appeared on CBS’s “Face the Nation” yesterday, condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory. The following excerpt stood out:

“Well, it’s an incredible act of aggression. It is really a stunning, willful choice by President Putin to invade another country. Russia is in violation of the sovereignty of Ukraine. Russia is in violation of its international obligations. Russia is in violation of its obligations under the U.N. charter, under the Helsinki final act. It’s in violation of its obligations under the 1994 Budapest agreement.

“You just don’t, in the 21st Century, behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext.”


So, the referent was not Iraq.

Stephen Hayes was a huge proponent and cheerleader for the War on Iraq. Do you suppose his opinion piece is proposing that the US become militarily involved in Ukraine? Its hard to tell what he's proposing as an alternative to the current policies around Ukraine and Crimea ....


This is where reading comprehension is so vital. His piece was about the make-believe nature of Obama's policy--which the picture also pokes fun at. That you can't get it . . . I'm sorry.

Its seems to be nothing more than a fantasy that if we just talked tougher to Putin things would turn out differently .... The same kind of fantasy that suggested that the Iraqis would welcome an invasion and occupation of their country and eventually turn into great allies and friends...
Stephen Hayes has no credibility, and your comic explains why.


Actually, in the real world, it's Obama who has no credibility--how about "Al Qaida is on the run . . .?" How about the red line in Syria? How about Assad's days being numbered? How about having more flexibility ("Tell Vlad . . .") after his election? How about those sanctions on Iran?

Obama thought that his persona and powers of persuasion would turn the world into a Star Trek-like Federation of Nations. Fantasy--just like your interpretation.
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Post 24 Apr 2014, 6:39 am

bbauska
What is your comment on the current situation w/o bringing up Bush?

Fate offered the comic as a comment.
The comic is funny because the Russian leaders are obviously laughing as thy consider the source of the criticism - the US.
A country which has a recent and inglorious history of trumping up pretext for invasions of countries...
(Not just Iraq, but Iraq was a fine example. And I mention Iraq because of Fates reliance on Stephen Hayes opinion piece. Stephen Hayes the Iraq hawk).

A case of pot calling kettle black, without any self awareness.

I'll ask you and Fate both. Does Hayes offer any specificity? What measures is he specifically saying will have greater effect on Russia and the Russian ethnics in Ukraine than those being taken?
Its a case of bitching about results, but not having a clue how to get better results.
The reality, which Hayes nor Fate seem to understand, is that there are few effective levers to use against Russia if they care not for world opinion ...
Is Hayes saying war is an option? Fate?