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- danivon
- Ambassador
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15 Nov 2012, 7:15 am
The US presidential elections are obviously a major event, and a week later still a massive talking point. However, for the past week the Chinese Communist Party have been going through what is arguably a more important process - choosing who will lead the country until 2023.
Not because China is more powerful than the US (it is not, but there is huge potential), or more populous (it is, but the vast majority of Chinese have no influence on who leads them), but because China is currently undergoing massive changes - population movements that dwarf US concerns about illegal immigration in scale; industrialisation and commercialisation at great speed; increasing economic and political involvement in other nations across the developing world; social upheaval that may precipiate crisis; a political system walking a very fine line between dogma, reality, popular pressure, corruption and the national interest...
In global terms, and in terms of impact over time, I think it matters more.
So, does anyone have any views on whether the new politburo appointments signal a conservatove shift (as in, more 'traditionally' hardline CP), or a greater appetite for reform?
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- Sassenach
- Emissary
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15 Nov 2012, 9:18 am
Well it doesn't seem to be a more conservative group than before, but at the same time it would be foolish to assume anything. Just because Xi Jinping speaks good English and has a daughter at Harvard it doesn't follow that he's going to be any more open to political reforms than his predecessors.
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- rickyp
- Statesman
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15 Nov 2012, 10:02 am
There is a great deal of unrest in China. There are dozens and dozens of protests being staged every week aimed at corruption, greater transparency and achievement of more personal freedoms. (A work mate just returned having witnessed three, one of a major scale. we don't hear about them too much, but they are - despite efforts to limit their exposure - well known across China)
The leadership of China regularly send their best and brightest to places like Harvard to learn the skills required to manage the political change in order to both keep the Party in power, but unless to offer enough incremental change to keep people reasonably content.
The development of a middle class, has meant the development of a group with greater aspirations and desirous of more of what they see in other countries. (Extensive travel by Chinese citizens has also contributed to this desire.)
Change is coming in China. The only question is how fast and will the Party manage to control the scope and speed of change?
Of course part of this is the mythic control that chna's govenrment is supposed to have over past change. Even the advent of private enterprise happened before the central government got involved.
We also noted, in contrast to the standard accounts of Chinese economic reforms, that these didn’t have their origins in some clever planning by Chinese leaders but in political struggles within the Politburo pitting Deng Xiaoping against the Gang of Four. It was once again politics — not clever planning, design or economic advice — driving economics. In fact, the recent thought-provoking book by Victor Nee and Sonja Opper, Capitalism from Below convincingly argues that early reforms were neither instituted by the party nor were they outcomes of experimentation, but resulted from the party catching up with what had been going on on the ground given the political vacuum and crisis wrought by the Cultural Revolution. They point out that before Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, privately-led experiments with production for the market and ending collective incentives had started. For example, in Anhui province, peasant households had already dissolved communes and collectives before any reforms, and had started a land-lease system. They suggest it was this sort of development that forced the hand of Deng Xiaoping and Communist Party elites to start loosening of central planning and collectivization. Whether Nee and Opper’s interpretation is correct or not, what seems clear is that there was a radical change in economic institutions in China and most likely this resulted from a variety of political factors — rather than from Deng Xiaoping’s farsighted genius as the hagiographic biography of Deng, Deng Xiaoping, by Ezra Vogel suggests
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http://whynationsfail.com/blog/2012/11/ ... -that.htmlEssentially, China can't be controlled with an iron fist anymore. By becoming a 21st century economic power, it has had to allow the middle class to evolve and that is the beginning of the end for autocratic regimes. I suspect the Party will still exert a great deal of control for a few decades but it will have to give way as well.
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- danivon
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15 Nov 2012, 10:40 am
Sassenach wrote:Well it doesn't seem to be a more conservative group than before, but at the same time it would be foolish to assume anything. Just because Xi Jinping speaks good English and has a daughter at Harvard it doesn't follow that he's going to be any more open to political reforms than his predecessors.
It's not so much Xi Jinping, but some of the others that suggest a less liberal direction. Xi is figurehead and able technocrat, but he isn't going to run the country alone.