One thing I found strange in the tactics used by the Democrats was to run the same guy against Walker. Getting people who have rejected your guy to change their mind and vote for him seems very hard to do. And Barrett did win the new voters.

I don't know what those 18% of Obama supporters who voted for Walker are going to do, but if even half stick with Obama we should be fine in Wisconsin.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/07/bellwether/

A poll was conducted by phone after the election results....

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/6/2012 - Participants: 1,270 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.75%
OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED
ALL VOTERS 48% 43% 9%
WOMEN ONLY 54% 37% 9%
MEN ONLY 42% 49% 9%
DEMOCRATS ONLY 91% 4% 5%
REPUBLICANS ONLY 11% 85% 4%
INDEPENDENTS ONLY 40% 42% 18%

As we’ve seen elsewhere, President Obama is twice as likely to receive support from Republicans (11%) than Romney is from Democrats (4%), and Independent voters are evenly split. Note that when we asked political party affiliation, this sample had 37% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 30% Independents. We also note with interest the gender gap between the two candidates…a result that is echoed throughout our recent privately conducted polls elsewhere in the nation.

rickyp wrote:http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/07/bellwether/

A poll was conducted by phone after the election results....

Poll type:: Automated Date: 6/6/2012 - Participants: 1,270 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.75%
OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED
ALL VOTERS 48% 43% 9%
WOMEN ONLY 54% 37% 9%
MEN ONLY 42% 49% 9%
DEMOCRATS ONLY 91% 4% 5%
REPUBLICANS ONLY 11% 85% 4%
INDEPENDENTS ONLY 40% 42% 18%

As we’ve seen elsewhere, President Obama is twice as likely to receive support from Republicans (11%) than Romney is from Democrats (4%), and Independent voters are evenly split. Note that when we asked political party affiliation, this sample had 37% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 30% Independents. We also note with interest the gender gap between the two candidates…a result that is echoed throughout our recent privately conducted polls elsewhere in the nation.

Nice. Obama under 50%.

If you think a within the MOE poll at this point locks up WI, you've got another thing coming.

And, there will be some in the union movement who just stay home. The President stayed home when they needed him.

steve

Nice. Obama under 50%

.

Mitt is even further under.
Which I think is the point of the poll. If there had been some sea change as a result of Walkers recall triumph it would be measurable.

rickyp wrote:steve

Nice. Obama under 50%

.

Mitt is even further under.
Which I think is the point of the poll. If there had been some sea change as a result of Walkers recall triumph it would be measurable.

Please. Mercy. You know it is the incumbent who has to be over 50 to be safe. Read this and let's be done with it.

Third, consider what the exit polls are suggesting: that Obama leads by seven points in an R+1 electorate. To achieve this, he would have to either be doing disproportionately well among Republicans compared to how Romney performs among Democrats, or very, very well among independents.

This is inconsistent with what we’ve seen in just about every poll of the race between Romney and the president, who currently sports a 41 percent approval rating among independents. This isn’t to say it’s impossible that he’d be leading in an electorate with more Republicans than Democrats, but it is something of a red flag.

None of these would really be much cause for concern, however, without the larger context of the exit poll itself. Remember, the initial data that came in showed Walker and Tom Barrett tied, which was off by a full seven points.

If you want to start a "Polls" forum, I'll see you there--and we can spare everyone else.

An interesting tidbit on handicapping the election: One key date is Fri. Nov. 2nd when the monthly unemployment rate is released; the other is Fri Oct. 26th when 3rd quarter estimated GDP is released. Until then, we may just muddle through on this holding pattern.

Fox news poll indicates Obama has big lead
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08 ... ort-slips/

I'm not sure if late news on economy will be a big factor--people have already factored that in.I think obama has effectively painted Romney as out of touch with average voter's concerns--if he doesn't change that impression he loses And now I hear there is pressure to add Ryan as VP--that will make it even easier for Obama

On April 10 I predicted.

Electoral College: Obama 326 Romney 209
Percentage of Vote: Obama 53 Romney 46 Other 1

With Obama ahead 5 points in a poll in Ohio this morning... I'm still comfortable with the prediction.
Doesn't it feel like the past 5 months have been an exhausting barrage of vitriol, especially that funded by PACs?
All aimed at a very small, suppossedly undecided group. And a small group that might be persuadable...
And yet it feels like the trench warfare of WWI. The lines aren't moving...

There's got to be a better way to elect governments.

PPP poll. Using 2008 electorate.

In any event, this seems like a trend in polling and not an election prediction.

Current polls may be just a result of a post-Convention effect. So it's too early to extrapolate to the result. But I would say that Obama does have the advantage with less that two months to go. I expect it will be within 4 points, and very close on the EC.

However, DF, Ricky was actually repeating his earlier prediction saying that polling point towards it, so no need to snipe.

fate
In any event, this seems like a trend in polling and not an election prediction

really? And what is a preference poll, except an attempt to predict the outcome of an election?

rickyp wrote:fate
In any event, this seems like a trend in polling and not an election prediction

really? And what is a preference poll, except an attempt to predict the outcome of an election?

Gee whiz, I thought predictions were for us to make!

But, thanks for disproving Danivon's snipe.

DF - I was right for his earlier post. Nothing to 'disprove' - did he or did he not repeat his prediction and say he was still comfortable with it? Yes. So it was a post about his prediction.

That he later went on with some drivel about polling is by-the-by.

Ricky - Preference polling may be an attempt at prediction, but it isn't really one due to the fact it cannot account for future factors and does not try to. A prediction is about trying to second guess those factors. At best, a poll is a snapshot of current opinion (and there are various reasons it may not be accurate), and a series of polls can indeed provide a trend, but only up to the current time. Just as for 'the value of investments', polling figures can go down as well as up, and prior performance is no guarantee of future results.

Please, though, try and put polling stuff into a different thread. It annoys DF if it's not in his thread, and some of us don't really care to read about polls we can easily look for ourselves.

danivon wrote:Please, though, try and put polling stuff into a different thread. It annoys DF if it's not in his thread, and some of us don't really care to read about polls we can easily look for ourselves.

Nope, eventually it annoys everyone else--including you. Maybe your losing your ability to remember, but you and others have complained about us debating methodology. Most of his post was based on the PPP Ohio poll.