| Author |
Topic |
| S&P 500 will fall to 500 before it is over |
| Yes |
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25% |
[ 2 ] |
| No |
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75% |
[ 6 ] |
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| Total Votes : 8 |
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Pigmalia
Dignitary
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 Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:19 am     |
You heard it here first.
I was right about oil and right about the polar ice cap. Will Pig pull off this prediction as well for a hat trick?
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“I enjoy crushing bastards.” Assange |
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| posts: 4729 | location: Autonomous Inland Empire - Occupied | joined: 02 Feb 2006 |
Riaz
Foreign Minister
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Fri Mar 06, 2009 10:36 am  |
I hope you're right Pigmalia, because I've still got some cash in my reserves and if it hits 500, I'm going all in.
I'm 31 and could buy about 50% of my retirement $$ by the age of 33 if the S&P and the other major indexes shrink that much more.
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Proud Member of the OIW |
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| posts: 1273 | location: richmond, bc, canada | joined: 27 Aug 2000 | medals: 4 |
geojanes
Dignitary
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 11:13 am |
I don't know, and I almost didn't vote, but I like these polls and decided to go with my gut, which tells me that at some point investor greed will trump investor fear and that will happen sometime before another 30% drop in the S&P.
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| posts: 1290 | location: New York, NY | joined: 01 Oct 2000 | medals: 2 |
Rewind
Ambassador
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Sun Mar 08, 2009 11:28 am |
I said no, but who knows for sure. If it goes below 600, I'll put more money in.
Since Pigs is saying 500, I'll guess (and it's purely a wild guess) that it will bottom out around 600. Let's see if "the price is right."
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| posts: 4508 | location: Ann Arbor, Michigan USA | joined: 01 Apr 2001 | medals: 4 |
Jaundiced Jaffe
Ambassador
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Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:10 pm |
The irony of this discussion thread is that it gave me comfort that you guys see 500 as a bottom. It's just nice to know that there actually will be a bottom!
JJ
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| posts: 1215 | location: Massachusetts, USA | joined: 08 Jun 2000 | medals: 6 |
Pigmalia
Dignitary
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Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:49 pm |
| Jaundiced Jaffe wrote: |
The irony of this discussion thread is that it gave me comfort that you guys see 500 as a bottom. It's just nice to know that there actually will be a bottom!
JJ |
Sorry JJ but I didn't call a 500 bottom, I predicted it would go to 500. You'll recall my bold prediction that oil would go below $100 by October last year? Turned out my prediction wasn't nearly bold enough. 
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| posts: 4729 | location: Autonomous Inland Empire - Occupied | joined: 02 Feb 2006 |
Rewind
Ambassador
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Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:13 pm |
Well, so far, the low has been 676 on March 9th, (which ironically is the day of Pigmalia's last post) and it's gone up to the 800's the last two weeks. Still think it will hit 500? Still time for that I suppose.
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| posts: 4508 | location: Ann Arbor, Michigan USA | joined: 01 Apr 2001 | medals: 4 |
Pigmalia
Dignitary
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Sun Mar 29, 2009 10:16 am |
I wouldn't mind being wrong, but that would be wishful thinking. The market is doing another 'dead cat bounce'. Historically speaking what has occurred is hardly out of the norm. Between 2000 and July 2001 the S&P lost exactly the same amount as we lost recently over six months. Yet now just like with 9/11 it's a 'crisis' and reason to hand unprecedented powers to the POTUS, and to spend trillions without even reading what it's for.
If I'm wrong and the S&P doesn't dip below 700 again then it begs the question, "WTF?"
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| posts: 4729 | location: Autonomous Inland Empire - Occupied | joined: 02 Feb 2006 |
geojanes
Dignitary
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Wed Apr 01, 2009 10:17 am |
A suggested answer to the "WTF" question, is that there is so much money now being pushed into the system that it is actually having a stimulating effect. We're not talking just about money from the so-called stimulus bill, but money that just got shot into banks via AIG (what, you thought Goldman Sachs was going to put that cash into a money market account?), Tarp money, money that's gone to automakers, the auto supplier bailout, the Fed buying long-term treasuries and thereby pushing more money into the system, etc. etc. etc.
I'm not saying that there won't be negative consequences to all the cash being pushed into the markets, but that cash will eventually find a home and some of it will find a home in equities. This is very bullish for stocks. It is inflationary of course, but until we start seeing serious (6 to 8 pct) inflation, we've got all the conditions for a massive upswing in equities. Except earnings, of course. But if you think that's going to come, then now's the time to buy.
Of course, I could be way off, but I just don't see Goldman Sachs sitting on their money.
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| posts: 1290 | location: New York, NY | joined: 01 Oct 2000 | medals: 2 |
Pigmalia
Dignitary
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Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:15 am |
I don't mind doing some short term trades to capitalize on the craziness in the markets, but I couldn't fathom investing in the stock market.
I've seen a lot of people living high off the hog with home equity loans, maxed credit cards, and leveraged real estate investing only to lose it all in a blazing crash. So why would I expect anything other than a delay of consequences by the governments massive spending? The market needs to correct and the banks should have been seized and processed as provided by law, but what's going on is more obscene than the initial financial crisis.
I just don't see the markets outperforming gold over the next ten years, so why take the risk?
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| posts: 4729 | location: Autonomous Inland Empire - Occupied | joined: 02 Feb 2006 |
geojanes
Dignitary
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Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:17 am |
Well, stay diversified. As I’ve said before, remember that gold is a commodity, like any other metal, one that produces no income, costs money to store, and has limited industrial uses. Going all in on gold might be a decision you regret when you’re older.
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| posts: 1290 | location: New York, NY | joined: 01 Oct 2000 | medals: 2 |
geojanes
Dignitary
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Fri Jul 24, 2009 7:08 am |
Phew! I'm glad that's over with. Or is Pig still calling for a SP 500 to hit a 500 low?
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| posts: 1290 | location: New York, NY | joined: 01 Oct 2000 | medals: 2 |
Pigmalia
Dignitary
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Fri Jul 24, 2009 8:11 am |
I'm not dropping the prediction, but I recognize the time frame for it's fulfillment is unknown. They have breathed life into the credit beast for now but the fundamentals have only gotten worse. The GAO has stated that our debts are unsustainable.
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| posts: 4729 | location: Autonomous Inland Empire - Occupied | joined: 02 Feb 2006 |
Rewind
Ambassador
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Fri Jul 24, 2009 10:11 am |
Well, on the one hand I am happy that at least the stock markets are optimistic and going up again. On the other hand, I just got laid-off, and unemployment here in Michigan is through the roof and still going up. 
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| posts: 4508 | location: Ann Arbor, Michigan USA | joined: 01 Apr 2001 | medals: 4 |
geojanes
Dignitary
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Fri Jul 24, 2009 6:10 pm |
That's tough Eric. Often when we talk about these things they are in the abstract. Clearly, lots of people out there have lost their jobs or have had their hours reduced, which makes these discusssions much more concrete. Good luck in finding a new gig and in the meantime make sure to make good use of your time.
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| posts: 1290 | location: New York, NY | joined: 01 Oct 2000 | medals: 2 |
